Trends in commercial real estate usually follow those in residential housing. That's because shopping centers, office buildings and hotels are usually built to support expansion in residential real estate. It takes longer to get the financing, to build them, and to lease out the space.
Therefore, you can usually predict what will happen in commercial real estate by following the ups and downs of the housing market. Knowing this makes it easier to invest in Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITS). They are easily traded investments that focus on commercial real estate.
Commercial real estate lending is now recovering from the 2008 financial crisis. As of June 30, 2013, banks held $991.2 billion in commercial loans. This was a 3.3% increase over 2012, which rose 2.4%. This biggest driver to this growth is in apartment buildings. This could tail off as the single-family home market slows. (Source: WSJ, Commercial Loans Pick Up, October 15, 2013)
Commercial Real Estate and the 2008 Financial Crisis
The first signs of decline in residential real estate occurred in 2006. Three years later, commercial real estate started feeling the effects. Commercial real estate defaults affected small banks more, because they had invested more in local shopping centers, apartment complexes and hotels.
Hotels are one component of commercial real estate. Credit: Don Kravitz / Getty Images
In July 2009, it became apparent that commercial real estate was the next blow to the economy. During the worst recession since the Great Depression, commercial property owners had to refinance or sell $165 billion in loans. Lower property values meant most loans had only 20-30% equity, while banks required 40-50% equity. Loan losses pummeled smaller, community banks, which had a larger exposure. Many were concerned it could be as bad as the 1989 Savings and Loan Crisis.
When home loans defaulted, commercial loans were soon to follow. Credit: David McNew/Getty Images
Many investors owned Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), which hold commercial real estate. These REIT values were depressed for years. Why? Owners of commercial real estate were upside-down in their mortgages, since their commercial property values had dropped 40-50% since 2008. They were scrambling to find cash to make the payments, since many tenants had either gone out of business or renegotiated lower payments. But, unlike banks, they did't have the FDIC to stand behind them. So, many of them went bankrupt and defaulted on their loans whether they wanted to or not.
The financial crisis created huge vacancies in commercial real estate. Credit: Scott Olsen/Getty Images
By June 2010, the mortgage delinquency rate for commercial real estate worsened to $45.5 billion in bank-held loans, or 4.17%. This was higher than both the 3.83% rate in the fourth quarter of 2009 and the 2.25% rate a year ago.
By October 2010, it looked like rents for commercial real estate began stabilizing. For three months, rents for 4 billion square feet of office space fell by only a penny. The national office vacancy rate seemed to stabilize at 17.5%, lower than the 1992 record of 18.7%, according to real estate research firm REIS Inc.
Commercial real estate is any property owned to produce income. It typically refers to office complexes, shopping malls, and hotels. In its broadest definition, it includes apartment complexes and industrial real estate.
In the 1980s, banks invested in speculative real estate, including commercial loans. Between 1982 and 1985, these assets increased 56%. In Texas alone, 40 S&L's tripled in size, some growing 100% each year. Between 1986-1995, over 1,000 banks with total assets of over $500 billion failed. By 1999, the Crisis cost $153 billion, with taxpayers footing the bill for $124 billion, and the S&L industry paying the rest.
Real estate contributes 8%of the total U.S. economy's output
. If real estate declines, so do construction jobs, increasing unemployment
. It also leads to a decline in real estate prices, which reduces the value of everyone’s homes. This loss of equity eventually reduces consumer spending.