- GDP is slowing,
- Businesses are expanding more slowly,
- Employment is falling,
- Housing prices are down 10%.
Many experts state that it is only an economic recession when GDP growth is negative for two consecutive quarters or more. However, for all practical purposes a recession starts when there are several quarters of slowing but still positive growth. Often a quarter of negative growth will occur, following by positive growth for several quarters, and then another quarter of negative growth.
A good example was the stock market crash and subsequent economic downturn in 2000. This was not a recession in technical terms because GDP growth was negative in Q3 2000, Q1 2001, and Q3 2001, none of which were consecutive. However, anyone who lived through it knows that it felt like a recession during all that time. And in fact, GDP growth did not reach over 3% until Q3 2003.
About the only good thing about a recession is that it will cure inflation. The balancing act the Federal Reserve must pursue is to slow economic growth enough to prevent inflation without triggering a recession. Currently, it must do this without the help of fiscal policy, which is generally trying to stimulate the economy as much as possible through lowering taxes, spending on social programs and ignoring current account deficits.
