But what usually causes the slowdown in the first place? Each recession has its own specific causes, but all of them are usually preceded by a period of irrational exuberance. This is also known as a business cycle.
What Caused the Recession of 2001?
The recession of 2001 is a great example. In 1999, there was a economic boom in computer and software sales caused by the Y2K scare. Many companies and individuals bought new computer systems to make sure their software was “Y2K compliant” This meant that the operating code would be able to understand the difference between 2000 and 1900, since many fields within that code only had two spaces, not the four needed to fully differentiate the two dates. As a result, the stock price of many high tech companies started to increase. This led to a lot of investors' money going to any kind of high tech company, whether they were showing profits or not. The exuberance for dot.com companies became irrational.It became apparent in January 2000 that computer orders were going to decline, since the shelf life of most computers is about two years, and companies had just bought all the equipment they would need. This led to a stock-market sell-off in March 2000. As stock prices declined, so did the value of the dot.com companies, and many went bankrupt.
High Interest Rates Cause Recession
High interest rates are also a cause of recession. That's because it limits liquidity, or the amount of money available to invest. In spite of the stock market decline in March 2000, the Federal Reserve continued raising interest rates to a high of 6.25% in May 2000. The Fed didn't start lowering rates until January 2001, and lowered them about 1/2 point each month, resting at 1.75% in December 2001. This kept interest rates high when the economy needed low rates for cheap business loans and mortgages.One of the causes of the current recession was that the Fed was also slow to raise interest rates when the economy started to boom again in 2004. Low interest rates in 2004 and 2005 helped created the housing bubble. Irrational exuberance set in again as many investors took advantage of low rates to buy homes just to resell. Others bought homes they couldn't afford thanks to interest-only loans.
Cause of Current Recession
In 2006, when higher rates finally kicked in, declining housing prices caught many homeowners who had taken loans with little money down. As they realized they would lose money by selling the house for less than their mortgage, they foreclosed. An escalating foreclosure rate panicked many banks and hedge funds, who had bought mortgage-backed securities on the secondary market and now realized they were facing huge losses.By August 2007, banks became afraid to lend to each other because they didn't want these toxic loans as collateral. This led to the $700 billion bailout, and bankruptcies or government nationalization of Bear Stearns, AIG, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, IndyMac Bank, and Washington Mutual. By December 2008, employment was declining faster than in the 2001 recession.
