Question: Even if We Go to Alternative Sources, Is the Era of Cheap Energy Over?
Gavin Longmuir is a consultant with International Petroleum Consultants Association, Inc. He has over 25 years experience as a petroleum engineer in the global oil industry, specializing in the development of future oil fields, economic evaluations of exploration opportunities and assessment of new technologies. His PhD is from the University of Strathclyde, Scotland.
Answer: If we choose to limit ourselves to today’s resources and today’s politically-correct technologies, the long-term trend is definitely towards higher energy costs.
However, there could be game changers:
- A revived nuclear industry (including breeder reactors) could provide safe environmentally responsible energy on a TeraWatt scale for centuries.
- Mok Industries is developing low cost photovoltaics that could put a cap on oil prices and greatly expand supply.
- Craig Venter (of the human genome project) is working on developing genetically modified organisms that could produce hydrogen, methane, or liquid hydrocarbons (presumably from photosynthesis or from inputs derived from photosynthesis) – replacing fossil oil & gas.
- Nuclear fusion has been 50 years in the future for the last 50 years. Someday, they may surprise us all and actually develop a workable fusion energy source.
- There could also be some minor contributions from wind factories and biofuels like ethanol or butanol. But those fuels can’t compete without mandates or subsidies, they have big environmental costs, and there is almost certainly not enough land or suitable marine areas to provide biofuels for the world.
