When Will Job Opportunities Improve?

Question: When Will Job Opportunities Improve?

Answer: Job opportunities don't increase even when a recession is over. That's because employers don't want to add the increased labor cost until they know for sure that the economy will support it. They make the workers who remain in the company work harder. This increases productivity. But they can only push their workers so far. Even if the workers try to stay and work smarter and harder, they eventually get worn out, and sick time increases.

At that point, job opportunities increase for part-time and temporary workers. Once they feel confident that the economy has recovered, they hire full-time workers.

The 2008-2009 recession lasted 18 months, as defined by negative GDP growth. As of December 2009, it had 19 months of job losses. In comparison, the 2001 recession lasted 8 months, and had 29 months of job losses. How long will it take before job opportunities increase again?

If this recession follows the pattern of the 2001 recession, it will be July 2011. That's because job opportunities didn't increase until November 2003 - two years after the 2001 recession ended. If the 2008-2009 recession did, in fact, end in July 2009, it will take two years before job opportunities increase.