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2007 GDP Statistics

The Year the Bubble Burst

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GDP Growth

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Updated August 13, 2013
The economy grew strongly in 2007, until a drop in the fourth quarter. However, if you look at the BEA's estimates, they range from a decline of .6% to a rise of 2.9%. This just goes to prove how even the experts have a hard time realizing the economy is turning from expansion to contraction. That's why it's so incredibly difficult for the average investor to time the stock market or make decisions based on changes in the economy. It's better to be well-diversified and flexible.

When the BEA published its final estimate of Q4 growth, it said that the economy had contracted .2%in Q4 2007. It later revised the estimate up, when more data came in. At the time, however, there was much shock that perhaps a recession had started. Shortly thereafter, it did. Here's the blog posts for each GDP release in 2007. The BEA published revisions in 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2013. The most recent revision is given first, followed by prior estimates. A record of these changes aren't easily available anywhere else.

2007 GDP for the Year: 1.8% (1.9% in 2011 and 2.1% in 2010)

Q4 2007: 1.5% (1.9% in 2011, 2.9% in 2010 and 2.1% in 2009)

  • Advance Report - Why the economy slumped to .6% and the risk of recession.
  • Second Report - New data confirmed growth was only .6%.
  • Third Report - No revisions. Growth still at .6%.
  • In April 2008, the BEA revised Q4 2007 GDP to -.2%, declaring the start of the current recession.

Q3 2007 GDP: 2.7% (3% in 2011, 2.3% in 2010 and 3.6% in 2009)

  • Advance Report: - Why GDP was still so healthy at 3.9%, why it might have declined in Q4, and the annual outlook.
  • Second Report - Discusses the surprising jump in GDP growth to 4.9%, the factors behind the revision, and the outlook for Q4.
  • Third Report - Why the Final Report remained at a still astounding 4.9%.
  • In April 2008, the BEA revised Q3 2007 GDP to 4.8% (same as Q2 2007 revision).

Q2 2007 GDP: 3.1% (3.6% in 2011 and 3.2% in 2010)

  • Advance Report: - Why it was unlikely that GDP could go from .6% in Q1 to 3.4% in Q2
  • Second Report - Why GDP was revised up to an astounding 4%.
  • Third Report - Why the Final Report was revised down slightly to 3.8%.
  • In April 2008, the BEA revised Q2 2007 GDP to 4.8%.

Q1 2007 GDP: .3% (.5% in 2011, 0.9% in 2010 and 1.2% in 2009)

  • Advance Report: - The significance of 1.2% GDP growth to you.
  • Deja Vu - Dow High, GDP Low - Why the stock market hit a new high when the underlying economy dropped to a new low. How this was like March 2000, the beginning of the last recession.
  • Second Report - Why GDP was revised down to .5.
  • Third Report - GDP was revised up .1 point, to .6%, the lowest growth rate in four years.
  • In April 2008, the BEA revised Q1 2007 GDP to .1%. In July 2010, the BEA revised it again to .9%.

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