The March employment report shows there are now 1 million discouraged workers, three times more than a year ago. These are unemployed people who have been out of work for so long that they've just given up looking for work. One reason why the unemployment rate held steady, at 9.7%, is that discouraged workers are no longer counted among the unemployed.
There is a also shift among those who are counted as unemployed - they are out of work for longer. Among the 15 million unemployed, 6.5 million have been unemployed for over six months. This is twice as many as last year. For a history of unemployment reports since March 2007, see Unemployment Statistics History.
Despite this trend, the employment situation is improving - kind of. True, there are 2.3 million fewer jobs than March of last year. That's a bad thing. BUT the good part is it is better than July, when there were 6.8 million fewer jobs year-over-year. To see the trend, review my calculations on Jobs Google Spreadsheet.
The trend in manufacturing jobs, a leading indicator, also improved. The economy now has 633,000 fewer manufacturing jobs than the year before. This is much better than June 2009, when manufacturing was down 1.6 million jobs.
Manufacturing is a leading indicator because it produces the big-ticket items consumers put off buying in a recession. Once the economy starts to improve, these orders are the first to come back. In the last recession, manufacturing jobs started to improve before the overall job market. For the data, see Google Spreadsheet Manufacturing Jobs. (Source: BLS, Employment Situation Summary)
What This Means for You
There were 40,000 temporary jobs added in March. Over 313,000 temp jobs were added since September 2009. In the expansionary phase of a business cycle, employers add temporary workers before hiring full-time works.
There are 9 million workers who are part-time, even though they would prefer full-time work. The increase in part-time and temporary workers reflects a shift towards the Freelance Economy.
Expect job losses to continue until July 2011, based on the experience of the 2001 recession, which lasted 8 months, and had 29 months of job losses. To find out more, see When Will Job Opportunities Improve? For a history of employment reports since March 2007, read Employment Statistics History.
Articles from Alison Doyle, About.com Guide to Job Searching
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Comments
The True Unemployment Rate in the USA is currently at 21.9%, not the government-reported 9.7%. We have a very long way to go before we can really talk about recovery. There’s still a chance (although slight) that this could become a “double-dip” recession. Time will tell!
Even if you add in the 1 million discouraged workers, the 2.2 million marginally employed, and the 8 million part-time workers, unemployment would only be 17%. For more, see What is the Real Unemployment Rate.