Unemployment Over 10%
The October employment report shows there are 5.8 million fewer jobs than last year. This trend is a tad better than September, when the economy was down 6 million jobs. These year-over-year stats show the trend is improving. In the 2001 recession, the economy did not regain health until this number trended up. Although that recession only lasted 8 months, it led to 29 months of job losses. (See Google Spreadsheet Employment)
For this reason, you can expect job losses to continue for probably another year. More people will get laid off, although not as many as the month before. Although the trend is hopeful, continued heavy job losses means the economy still runs a risk of a W-shaped recession, for reasons outlined here.
The unemployment rate rose to 10.2%. This would have to continue for another nine months to be as bad as the 1982 recession, when unemployment was above 10% for 10 months. (Source: BLS, Employment Situation Summary)
Manufacturing, a leading indicator, continues to decline. The economy now has 1.6 million fewer manufacturing jobs than the year before, continuing a two-year decline. However, it too is a little better than last month.
Manufacturing is a leading indicator because it produces the big-ticket items consumers put off buying in a recession. Once the economy starts to improve, these orders are the first to come back. In the last recession, manufacturing jobs started to improve before the overall job market. (See Google Spreadsheet Manufacturing Jobs)
For a history of employment reports since March 2007, read Employment Statistics History.
What This Means for You
Three sectors added jobs in August: Healthcare, education and for the first in this recession, business and professional services. This was partly because of an increase in temporary services. This supports my theory that the economy is shifting towards a Freelance Economy.
If you are considering a change, now is a good time to get trained for health care. If you have been laid off, then these articles will help you get a new job, so that you won't be a statistic in next month's unemployment report.
Articles from Alison Doyle, About.com Guide to Job Searching
Related Articles
- How Is Unemployment Defined?
- What Is Being Done to Control Unemployment?
- How Can I Protect Myself from Unemployment?
(Photo Credit: Chris Hondros /Getty Images)
Comments
The old saw goes that “All politics are local.” Likewise, all economics is local. You need to look at communities to get a sense of how bad things really are.
In addition to the usual, national unemployment rate data (UR), and your state, & county that your local news media report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics also reports UR data for “Cities and towns above 25,000 population.” (There are also a few other ways they slice the data.)
I culled through the preliminary, not seasonally adjusted, Sept. 2009 data for the 10 states with the highest UR. In each of these states, pulled out the town or city with the highest UR. In Michigan, two communities tied for first place with a UR of 35.2%
http://www.bls.gov/data/
Unemployment – Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
Area Type: Cities and towns above 25,000 population
State (%UR) / Highest UR Town or City (%UR)
Michigan (15.3) / Highland Park & Pontiac (35.2)
Nevada (13.3) / North Las Vegas (15.5)
Rhode Island (13.0) / Woonsocket (15.1)
California (12.2) / Delano (34.1)
South Carolina (11.6) / Anderson (27.9)
Oregon (11.5) / Springfield (13.9)
District of Columbia (11.4) / Washington (11.7)
Florida (11.0) / Fort Pierce (20.1)
Kentucky (10.9) / Hopkinsville (13.0)
North Carolina (10.8) / Kinston (12.9)
JK
Kimberly,
It is pretty obvious that, at least at the local level, some places are in an economic depression. Detroit has been for years, with the loss of manufacturing and population.
The problems is that, to my understanding, there is no technical definition for the term “depression.” And, since we are now into the 2010 election cycle, no politician really wants to touch that word, especially any incumbent who is running for re-election.
Why don’t you come up with a technical definition for the term “depression”? Then, point our some places communities, counties, states that meet the definition. The people who reside there probably would not disagree.
JK