Commercial Real Estate Time Bomb Keeps on Ticking

Comments

October 15, 2009 at 11:23 am

(1) Popham of Boston :

The commercial/industrial loan defaults have been coming
for a long time, as I have been warning anyone who would listen, for the past six months. And now the anvil
is about to drop and the major banks (too big to fail?) are
perhaps on the brink of collapse. Mr. Obama recently
announced that he will not bail them out again. Oh really?
Just wait and see.
If these larger banks begin to crumble under the stress of
huge commerial real estate defaults, plus consumer credit card defaults, then we are in store for an even worse scenario than the fall of 2008. All this easily explains why
these banks have been withholding their capital for this
next crisis. They’re not stupid, or are they?
They got themselves into this mess, so now with all their
combined greed and creative accounting methods, let’s
see how they manage to extricate themselves from this
oncoming freight train.
What are you going to do now, Mr. Geitner? Are your
friends at Goldman going to bail everyone out?

October 15, 2009 at 12:55 pm

(2) Kimberly :

That explains why the banks aren’t lending. They know they don’t have enough reserves to cover both the housing foreclosures and the upcoming commercial defaults.

Kimberly

October 16, 2009 at 1:09 pm

(3) Harry Dingey :

I CAN CREATE 15 MILLION JOBS ALMOST OVER NIGHT right here in America? I will bet anyone a million dollars to a donut that I could do that if I was President. The American people have been screwed for the last 100 years and they do not even have a clue of what is happening. All the Dem. or the Rep. Congressmen and the Presidents for the last 100 years in Washington D.C. of both parties do not care about America or the American People.
That is exactly why the American Government are shipping all the American Manufacturing Plants off shore to China as fast as they can in the last 16 years. They are planning to hand over America to CHINA on a platter, Lock Stock and Barrel. Then the America workers will all get their wish and they can start competing against the Chinese workers for that $2/day job. Since they all love that International trade so well. They will be treated just like the Chinese workers and work as Slave Labor at $2/day. Then every American regardless how much money you have will be affected in one way or another.

I think we are in the about the 8th inning right now. If you think I am wrong I have only two questions for you to answer.Why would AMERICA the most Wealthiest, the most Advanced, the most Strongest Country in the entire World, want to enter into NAFTA and the WTO and want to try to compete with third world Countries where the Workers are forced to work for Slave labor wages at $2/day?

There can only be one out come, All the International Manufacturers will be forced to move all of our great Factories and Technology off shore to a Communistic state of CHINA. Anyone with a 5th grade education can figure that out. International Trade will end up driving America into Bankruptcy then what is going to happen. When the America people finally figure this out it will be to late to stop it.

You want me to tell you why I already know this is the long term Plan. If I was The President I would create at least 15 million Jobs in America almost over night. How can you do that and President Obama can not do that?
It is called Slave Labor and the total destruction of America as we know it. If you beat the American Worker down far enough he will be ready to accept anything you offer him to feed his family.
All of you people who have money in the Bank and well fix and you love this International Trade, just wait till you lose everything then tell me about how smart you was.
Back to my Question: How of how I would create 15 million jobs almost over night?
There is one thing the America Government has total Control of and that is WHO and WHERE will produce all of the products the American people use on a daily basis.
I would PULL OUT OF NAFTA and the WTO and close the doors to the America Consumer Market (the biggest consumer market in the world) and tell the entire world if they want sell any of their Products in America they must build them products right here in America.

I am getting tired of all the third world countries all around the world making all the products consumed in America and my own American Workers going hungry.I know all of you American people have been told for 80 years that will just hurt you even more because all of the other countries around the world will stop buying your products and you will lose a lot of American JOBS.

That my friend is the BIGGEST DAMN LIE I ever heard. In fact I do not really care if the rest of the world buys even one penny of American Products from America. If America just manufactures all of the products we use on a daily bases right here in America, we will create an additional 15 Million Jobs.

Right now all of them 15 Million Jobs I am talking about have all been moved off shore to China, Mexico and Japan, Germany, India. They are producing all of these goods and are shipping it back to America to supple our daily needs.

Then when this very goods is imported back into the America, the American Government who is broke, must Borrow money from China and Japan to buy the very products that should have been produce right here in America in the first place. This is Equivalent to the Stupid American Government tell China to produce all of the goods America consumes and then when the goods is imported back into America the Federal Government is broke and are forced to borrow money from China and Japan to purchase all of this goods we are using on a daily bases. This has got to the most stupid damn bunch in Washington or they are conspiring to bankrupt and destroy America.

If you think I am wrong. You can goggle it and check it out for yourself. Then go to “youtube.com” and do some key word searches and listen to some of the videos and do your own research on the web.

I stand by my estimated Job creation of 15 Million jobs created in America within a very, very short time even if the rest of the world does not buy one-penny worth of EXPORT items from America.
You ask me “HOW CAN YOU SAY THAT”?
Here is my Computations and answer: America Imported in 2006 mainly from China, Mexico, Japan and India well over $760 Billion Dollars more than we exported in 2006. The $760 billion dollar import number that I am quoting includes Oil Imports which is something that America cannot change over night therefore must be subtracted out of total import number. The total U.S. crude oil imported during 2006 amounted to: $309.4 billion dollars of crude oil in 2006.
So, $760 billion minus $309.4 billion = $450.6 billion dollars worth of Manufactured Goods that could have and should have been produced right here in America. Based on conventional wisdom in job creation, if you take $450.6 billion dollars worth of imported goods / $30 billion to create one million jobs = 15.02 million jobs would be automatically created almost over night.
But, instead the Washington Politicians with all their Infinite Wisdom elected to move all of that manufactured goods off shore to China. Even as America has up-ward of 16% unemployment rate and climbing. Then to make things even worse the Federal Government must borrow money from China and Japan to purchased back these vary products as they are being brought back into America. If you want to talk about stupid that is just about as stupid as you can get. Maybe not if they are following the CFR Party Plan? I think we are witnessing the Federal Government in the process of transferring all of the America Assets off shore to Communist China on a platter.

Make no mistake about it China is still a Communistic Country. We are handing all of the American Military Defenses and our entire manufacturing base over to China on a platter.
Please tell me; “What the HELL are we going to do if we get into a War with Russia and China”? I guess we just concede the War without firing a shot just like Poland did to Hitler during World War II. It looks like we would have been better off too have lose World War II, at least we would not be forced to work for $2/day slave labor.
They must be stopped or one day America will wakeup under total Control of China Government. This is so sad because we had it all and our Federal Government demands we transfer everything we own off shore to China, Mexico and India.
You can never take back your country with the Ballot Box. I personally think it will require an all out Civil War. All of these politicians should be tried for treason and every penny of their ill-gotten wealth confiscated and returned back to the U.S. Treasury.
This has to be a Concerted Conspiracy because most of these politicians hold Major Educational Degrees from some of the best colleges in America.

I worked as Industrial Engineer for Rockwell International all of my adult life studying and computing labor rates, standards and practices. So please trust me I know exactly what I am talking about because this was my job for 30 years.

Here is the Main Problem in America. The American People keep thinking their Representatives in Washington are looking after your interest and will always solve problems and do whatever is best for America and the American People.
Wrong!!!
If you do not listen to me then you are part of the problem too. If you think I am wrong go Goggle it and check it out. Then go to youtube.com and do key word searches and listen to the videos. Start doing your own research. This is about Presidents and both Democrat and Republican Representatives in Washington who have turned the operation of running the Federal Government entirely over to the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).

Do you truly want a help straighten the United States Government out? Then, copy and post this article everyplace on the Internet you can post. The American People have a right to know exactly who runs our Federal Government.

Have a good day my friends.

October 16, 2009 at 3:28 pm

(4) czero :

A response to Harry Dingey: NUTS!

October 17, 2009 at 10:21 pm

(5) Tony Richardson :

If I might bring the conversation back to the commercial real-estate market, they say hindsight is 20/20. Who knew that all the growth and gains in real estate over the years would come to an abrupt halt? Certainly not banks, having set aside only 38 cents on every loan-loss dollar on commercial real estate! I must agree with Popham regarding government intervention. Losses will have to be accounted for. Since most banks don’t have sufficient capital to absorb them, the government/Fed will have to supply; the FDIC will continue to shut undercapitalized banks; and the Fed will “arrange” several bank marriages. Those banks which take over failed ones, however, will resist without certain loan-loss guarantees from the Fed, which will further increase the Fed’s balance sheet, which will put further pressure on the dollar, which will cause China to again express concern about our spending, which will once again put Timothy Geithner on the spot having to defend our “strong dollar” policy, and on and on and on.

Mr. Geithner and Mr. Bernanke have made optimistic comments lately, saying something like, “When we get the economy and jobs back on track, we will start living within our means,” and “When the financial system stabilizes, we will begin normalizing interest rates,” respectively. While I appreciate the “whens”, I am more interested in the “hows”. How do we stabilize the housing and commercial real-estate markets in a way that steers clear of Japan-style 10-year economic stagnation? Unfortunately, I can’t see it. For on top of job losses, reduced consumer spending, and a lack of sufficient savings as a buffer, the excesses that must be unwound and accounted for; and the enormous amount of commercial mortgage-backed securities coming due for refinancing makes government assistance an inevitability, so get ready.

In the near-to-mid term, we will have to accept the criticism and jeers of the international community, along with the “I told you sos” from our own bunch, but one day we will get past this – a better people.

October 18, 2009 at 7:35 am

(6) Tony Richardson :

I just read the following on FBN:

“President Obama was formally briefed by his economic team recently on the growing problems in commercial real estate lending…an issue many believe could trigger the next banking crisis.

A Washington trade association for developers, the Real Estate Roundtable, estimates that nearly $300 billion a year in short-term commercial real estate loans will mature each year for the next five years. A lot of the loans, often with maturities of three to five years, could go bad if the loans are unable to be refinanced.”

Can you believe it?! $300 billion a year every year for the next five years! Absolutely staggering! Kimberly, you were spot on, but what in the world do we do about it?

October 19, 2009 at 1:31 pm

(7) Kimberly Amadeo :

We do what we should have been doing all along – responsible personal financial planning. Live within our means. As I wrote in Waking Up From the American Dream, this isn’t necessarily a bad thing. We help each other. We barter. Instead of one, stress-filled, high paying corporate job, we work out of our homes and take on two or three low-paying but rewarding streams of income. We look within ourselves and find out who we really are. We ask the hard questions.

Kimberly

October 20, 2009 at 1:08 pm

(8) Jim Wygand :

Americans need to realize that the crisis is not the recession or even the precarious situation of US banks. What we are witnessing are the “derived crises” of a far deeper crisis that has been building for years: imbalances in the global economy between production and consumption. Those imbalances resulted from poor economic management, the suspension instead of the adjustment of regulations, the assumption that the dream could go on indefinitely, and the refusal to accept a fundamental rule of markets: prices will fluctuate! Until the imbalances are addressed, we will continue to see bank failures, declining property prices, and business failures. Systemic risk has not been eliminated. It would behoove the Fed to stop telling people it’s almost over. In fact, once the recession stops, the real work will begin. The IMF has predicted that the “crisis” will last 7 years (did someone break a mirror?). Unless US policymakers get their act together and implement some serious structural reforms, that could prove to be an optimistic forecast!

October 20, 2009 at 1:12 pm

(9) Kimberly Amadeo :

Jim,

You are so right!

Kimberly

November 26, 2009 at 1:07 pm

(10) business property :

yeah,“President Obama was formally briefed by his economic team recently on the growing problems in commercial real estate lending.